Sarasota Health News

Swine flu cases: High but leveling off

David Gulliver - posted 3:15 pm Friday, Sept. 25

The spread of influenza A H1N1, or swine flu, appears to have slowed in Sarasota County after an initial surge when schools reopened.

“It appears that we are leveling off, but at a very high level of influenza,” said Scott Pritchard, the Sarasota County Health Department’s epidemiologist, in a briefing for reporters Friday.

For the third straight week, the percentage of county hospitals’ emergency room patients with flu symptoms has held at 8 to 9 percent. That measure -- considered the most solid of the four ways the county tracks flu -- still probably overstates the flu’s spread.

“It is influenced by people’s thoughts and beliefs when they go to the ER,” Pritchard said. “The system very well may be overestimating the true incidence of disease.”

The percentage of positive lab tests for the virus also has see-sawed between 6 and 11 percent for several weeks, and probably indicates a consistent level of about 7 percent, Pritchard said.

Still, swine flu is running far above the maximum level of seasonal flu, which peaked at about 4 percent of emergency room visits in 2008. And it remains a major issue for patients are 19 and younger, where it had accounted for 18 to 19 percent of emergency room visits.

It is the reason for 8 percent of visits for those ages 20 to 54, and just 2 percent of visits for those 55 and older.

Cases in county schools also plateaued after the initial surge, with about 19 reports per school day for the second straight week. That's about twice as high as the comparable period in the last two years.

The total number -- 96 cases -- was greater than last week because the most recent reporting period was a five-day week. The last schools report, which found 76 cases, looked at a four-day week. There have been outbreaks of 10 or fewer cases at several schools, but no reports of hospitalizations from those outbreaks, and there are no signs that the flu's serverity -- generally mild -- has increased, Pritchard said.

He cautioned, though, that it was difficult to draw any conclusion about future weeks based on the short-term trends. And officials urged that people maintain the recommended practices to reduce the illness's spread: Wash your hands frequently, cover your mouth with your arm when coughing, and stay out of work or school and consult your doctor if you develop flu-like symptoms.





	Swine flu cases: High but leveling off David Gulliver - posted 3:15 pm Friday, Sept. 25 The spread of influenza A H1N1, or swine flu, appears to have slowed in Sarasota County after an initial surge when schools reopened. “It appears that we are leveling off, but at a very high level of influenza,” said Scott Pritchard, the Sarasota County Health Department’s epidemiologist, in a briefing for reporters Friday. For the third straight week, the percentage of county hospitals’ emergency room patients with flu symptoms has held at 8 to 9 percent. That measure -- considered the most solid of the four ways the county tracks flu -- still probably overstates the flu’s spread. “It is influenced by people’s thoughts and beliefs when they go to the ER,” Pritchard said. “The system very well may be overestimating the true incidence of disease.” The percentage of positive lab tests for the virus also has see-sawed between 6 and 11 percent for several weeks, and probably indicates a consistent level of about 7 percent, Pritchard said. Still, swine flu is running far above the maximum level of seasonal flu, which peaked at about 4 percent of emergency room visits in 2008. And it remains a major issue for patients are 19 and younger, where it had accounted for 18 to 19 percent of emergency room visits. It is the reason for 8 percent of visits for those ages 20 to 54, and just 2 percent of visits for those 55 and older. Cases in county schools also plateaued after the initial surge, with about 19 reports per school day for the second straight week. That's about twice as high as the comparable period in the last two years. The total number -- 96 cases -- was greater than last week because the most recent reporting period was a five-day week. The last schools report, which found 76 cases, looked at a four-day week. There have been outbreaks of 10 or fewer cases at several schools, but no reports of hospitalizations from those outbreaks, and there are no signs that the flu's serverity -- generally mild -- has increased, Pritchard said. He cautioned, though, that it was difficult to draw any conclusion about future weeks based on the short-term trends. And officials urged that people maintain the recommended practices to reduce the illness's spread: Wash your hands frequently, cover your mouth with your arm when coughing, and stay out of work or school and consult your doctor if you develop flu-like symptoms.