H1N1 swine flu vaccine to arrive as new cases keep falling

David Gulliver - posted 4:15 p.m. Friday, Oct. 2

Vaccinations for the illness known as swine flu about to start, and new cases of the illness are declining, county health officials said in a briefing Friday.

The first 2,100 doses of the vaccine, a nasal spray dose, will arrive in about a week, and vaccination clinics will open in county schools in late October, said Chuck Henry, an environmental health specialist who heads the county’s flu response.

The vaccine will be distributed to county health clinics and private-practice pediatricians to be given to young children, one of the groups at highest risk for the flu, Henry said.

The vaccination could help what sems to be a turning tide in the virus's spread. Three of the four systems Sarasota County uses to track the virus’s spread show that new cases are declining.

The percentage of flu cases among emergency room patients fell for the second time in three weeks. The percentage of flu cases among patients at two major medical practices fell for the third straight week. And the number of flu cases among public school students dropped sharply last week.

The fourth measure, positive lab tests at Sarasota Memorial Hospital, rose sharply, but that resulted from a change in testing practices at the hospital.

The novel H1N1 influenza A virus is still widespread in Sarasota County and Florida, and well above the peak levels of seasonal flu. But the spike in cases after schools opened appears to have ended.

“We have had some decreases in some of the (tracking) systems, which is a good sign,” said Scott Pritchard, an epidemiologist with the county Health Department. Still, he said, it is too early to tell what that decline means, or why it is happening.

But in the next few weeks, the county will be able to start actively fighting the virus. The county expects to start receiving bigger and bigger shipments of the vaccine, and in different forms, to keep arriving each week. Officials expect to open vaccination clinics in schools sometime after Oct. 20. The nasal form of the vaccine is not recommended for pregnant women and people with chronic health problems.

The county estimates about 140,000 people are in the five highest-risk groups: pregnant women, people who care for infants, healthcare workers, people 6 months to 24 years old and people 25 to 64 with chronic health problems.

The county should have enough vaccine to have inoculated everyone in those groups by Thanksgiving, Henry said.

A summary of the latest Sarasota County flu statistics:

-- The share of flu-like illness cases in ER patients: About 7.5 percent, down from 9 percent three weeks ago.

-- The share of flu-like illness cases at two medical practices: About 5 percent, down from 9 percent three weeks ago.

-- The number of students reporting flu-like illness: 13.4 per day, down from about 19 per day the previous two weeks. Schools’ data is a week behind the other measures.